When it comes to wine, we all know what we like to drink, but how many of us really know what we should invest in? We find out….
Cyclical buying analysis suggests that volumes of Bordeaux First Growth increases in late August and early September in anticipation of the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival and particularly in January, before the Chinese New Year. Outside Bordeaux, purchasing of Champagne, Rhone and Italian wines continue to rise, while Burgundy buying endures gaining market share despite its limited production. This would suggest a continued reliance on Asia for First Growths and increased interest in the best of the rest from Bordeaux and other leading regions within Europe; with so much quality outside the First Growths, this tendency is here to stay.
Super-Tuscans are a good investment, in particular Sassicaia. The Liv-ex Super-Tuscan index has returned 90% over the last five years, vastly outperforming the Liv-ex 50. Out of the five strongest brands, Masseto has lead the pack with 110% growth, while (as Liv-ex reported) Sassicaia lagged behind its peers returning 7% until August 2009, since which time it has seen a 40% increase for the last ten vintages. In terms of investment in wine, the trend seems facile, buy wines that are substitute brands. The market naturally turns to these as the global market realises the quality outside of the First Growths. Indeed, the price rise with Super Tuscans (although they are still well priced) means that wines like Brunello di Montalcino are looking very attractive, as are the well-priced Grand Crus of Bordeaux, Rhone, Spain and up and coming producers from Burgundy.
Wine funds traditionally have focused on the most liquid wines available, investing over 85% in First Growths, due to their higher value and traditional performance. The question of valuation is important; fine wine performed extremely well when the market was more opaque and the increased level of attempted maturity driven by wine funds succeeded in creating more correlation between their most traded stock (First Growths) and traditional markets. Indeed, it has been the wines outside of these hallowed clarets that have performed well in the last two years. Wine funds are not particularly suitable for retail investors and the market should naturally continue to broaden. As a result, analysts use a function of Liv-ex prices and wine-searcher lowest bottle price to draw the most accurate market data for valuations. After all, the latter shows the lowest price retail buyers would pay for a wine to drink, which ultimately is the point of fine wine, something many people in the market have sadly ignored.
Post 2000 vintages of Cheval Blanc are thinly traded and supported by its relative value to other leading wines. The newer vintages don’t seem to have sufficient global consumption demand to push prices up, although vintages such as 1998 look undervalued when compared to its quality. With Angelus and Pavie being promoted to the same status as Saint Emilion Grand Cru Classe A, the market is not currently viewing its newer vintages as strong buys.
The leading wines outside of the First Growths have performed well over the last few years. Post 2000 vintages of First Growths above £6,000 a case will continue to be flat, or subject to micro bubbles, with the global market focusing on value around £1,000 to £2,500 a case. Portfolios should be balanced across Bordeaux, Burgundy, Italy and the best from the rest of the world will continue to perform well. Moreover, Bordeaux wines scoring 98 points plus from 2009 and 2010 will become legends, particularly those under £2,500 a case, which makes them incredible value when compared together 100 point wines from older vintages.
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